I think she's gonna get crucified. Not for her specific actions, but as a scapegoat. Tens of millions of people who have lost money in their 401k(s) in the past few years are looking for blood (could it be their own responsibility for the investment decisions that they made? Naah).

Look at her defense: "I had a stop loss order! Well, okay, it was an informal verbal stop loss order". That's weak. Even if it were true -- and I don't think that it is -- Joe and Jane 401K voter don't even know what a stop loss order is. And they don't care. They will view it as a technicality.

There's a right way to trade stock in a situation like this. The right way is to have written orders, up front, with a big paper trail. If Merrill Lynch could produce the stop loss order, and if it were dated 3 months before Martha's trade in IMCL, then neutral journalists and commentators could explain that Martha had actually done nothing wrong, she wasn't trading on her connections, she was trading on the same information that everybody has access to (the stock price). She'd have a leg to stand on. She'd still be a scapegoat, but she'd have a strong defense. Because a stop loss order is inherently based on PUBLIC information, the stock price, which would mean that she was playing by the same rules as me and everybody else.

But Martha can't produce the stop-loss order. It's a matter of public record that she did a TRADE. Nothing wrong with that; I've done 90 trades this year already. But in my opinion, she did it on NON-PUBLIC information. That information was definitely MATERIAL. And TRADING on MATERIAL NON-PUBLIC information is a felony.

I think this is going to get ugly. It's not just Martha here. I bet that the SEC is going to check the trading in dozens of biotech and drug companies and scrutinize all the trades that happened just before the FDA news on Imclone became public.

Here's my guideline for trading a stock that has a lot of news volatility: look at the news on the company for the past year. If there is a lot of price movement before the news comes out, the market in that stock is crooked. If there is a lot of price movement after the news comes out, the market in that stock is clean.

The big question being, who would accessorize her execution?

--Putting a softer edge on doing hard time.

Well, somebody had to deal with those awful horizontal stripes and orange outfits.

quote:

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Originally posted by Colonel Panic:
I think Martha should be crucified, just on general principle.

The big question being, who would accessorize her execution?

Colonel Panic

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(on martha's set)
Reporter asks some question
martha: Well, I don't know about you, but this salad is an absolute must
Reporter-another question
martha: [continues dicing cucumber]Now look at how niiiice this is turning out!