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Author Topic: What will happen to the GOP after Nov 4?
Sxeptomaniac

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Icon 1 posted October 30, 2008 09:24      Profile for Sxeptomaniac   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
I've been looking at some of the news reports over the last week or so, and I'm beginning to wonder if the Republican Party might just suffer a major split at some point in the near future, mostly centered around Gov. Palin. She's got some major fans, but there's also clearly a lot of conservatives that don't like her, either.

This article, in particular, echoed some of the things I was thinking:

quote:
Jim Nuzzo, a White House aide to the first President Bush, dismissed Mrs Palin's critics as "cocktail party conservatives" who "give aid and comfort to the enemy".

He told The Sunday Telegraph: "There's going to be a bloodbath. A lot of people are going to be excommunicated. David Brooks and David Frum and Peggy Noonan are dead people in the Republican Party. The litmus test will be: where did you stand on Palin?"

I wonder if the support for Palin really runs deep enough, though. Will they gain control, or will her supporters end up being sidelined.

quote:
Mr Nuzzo, who believes this election is not a re-run of the 1980 Reagan revolution but of 1976, when an ageing Gerald Ford lost a close contest and then ceded the leadership of the Republican Party to Mr Reagan.

He said: "Win or lose, there is a ready made conservative candidate waiting in the wings. Sarah Palin is not the new Iain Duncan Smith, she is the new Ronald Reagan." On the accuracy of that judgment, perhaps, rests the future of the Republican Party.

I'm interested in seeing what happens. If the majority of the GOP rallies around Palin, I think it will mean they continue on the road to downfall, rather than renewal. Thoughts?

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The Famous Druid

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Icon 1 posted October 30, 2008 10:04      Profile for The Famous Druid     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
The link above doesn't work for me. [Frown]

Since Reagan re-branded the Republicans as 'The Party God Votes For', they've been an uneasy coalition of the Goldwater Conservatives, and the holy-rollers. This has been bad for the Republican Party, and bad for America.

Basically, it made them lazy.

The leadership knew that as long as they made the right noises on a few hot-button issues, they could rely on the support of the bible-belt evangelicals, and as long as they were careful not to keep any of the promises they made, (after 8 years, what have they actually delivered on abortion, gay marriage, teaching Genesis in science classes?) they didn't alienate the rest of the community too much.

Likewise, they made all the right noises about 'small government' and 'fiscal responsibility' to keep the Goldwater Conservatives happy, while delivering trainloads of pork-barrels to key support groups and running massive deficits.

And so, neither faction got what they wanted, and the nation suffered.

After the election, there will be an epic battle for control between these two factions. If the holy-rollers win, or if in defeat they form their own rival political party, look forward to a couple of decades of Democrat governments.

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Stereo

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Icon 1 posted October 30, 2008 10:35      Profile for Stereo     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by The Famous Druid:
After the election, there will be an epic battle for control between these two factions. If the holy-rollers win, or if in defeat they form their own rival political party, look forward to a couple of decades of Democrat governments.

Which may or may not be a good thing. On the one hand, too easy an election makes politician arrogants. Sorry, I mean, really arrogant, as in they don't even try to hide their bad sides. On the other, it may be the best time to impose unpopular but necessary changes.

Just as a few too many years of Liberal governement in Canada brought out both budget control (they cut hard but still were elected, because it brought in surplus that left the country in much better fiscal state than it was before - something the current "conservative" governement pretty much threw out the door), and some abusive spending (from the "flag" scandal to the the "sponsoring" scandal). Their arrogance lost them, but they still did a few good thing.

(Liberals may have lost the last election because their current leader speaks as much English as the current prime minister spoke French when he was first elected. But as there are a lot more English-speaking electors that would get offended by a non-fluent would-be PM than French-speaking ones, Harper won both times.)

And then, there's Quebec's provincial government story, where a popular - and efficient - PM went on with an unpopular but necessary decision, then lost their next election on promise by their opponent to reverse that decision. Oh, and they did, and created problems it took years to get rid of. A royal mess.

Conclusion: only go with hard changes when you are in a very powerful position. And that may be what the US need right now.

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TheMoMan
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Icon 1 posted October 30, 2008 11:50      Profile for TheMoMan         Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
___________Sxeptomaniac, The Famous Druid, Stereo I duhno. I do not trust the polls, as what people say and do is often different. I guess if the margin is small either way, no major changes except for paying down the debt. Large margin, all bets are off. I myself believe that the USA needs a medical system like the French, or Canada, yes they both have flaws but not as bad as we have here in the USA. I also believe that the USA needs a VAT or national sales tax instead of Income Taxes. Just the views of an old man.

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TMBWITW,PB

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Icon 1 posted October 30, 2008 12:28      Profile for TMBWITW,PB     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by TheMoMan:
I also believe that the USA needs a VAT or national sales tax instead of Income Taxes. Just the views of an old man.

I don't like the idea of a national sales tax in lieu of income taxes. Our income tax structure is progressive, i.e. people who make more pay a larger percentage in taxes. Sales taxes tend to be regressive, i.e. people who make less pay a larger percentage of their income, because those who have more money can save or invest a lot more of it.

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Sxeptomaniac

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Icon 1 posted October 30, 2008 12:38      Profile for Sxeptomaniac   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Odd. The original link still works for me. This one has similar things to say.

quote:
Originally posted by Stereo:
quote:
Originally posted by The Famous Druid:
After the election, there will be an epic battle for control between these two factions. If the holy-rollers win, or if in defeat they form their own rival political party, look forward to a couple of decades of Democrat governments.

Which may or may not be a good thing. On the one hand, too easy an election makes politician arrogants. Sorry, I mean, really arrogant, as in they don't even try to hide their bad sides. On the other, it may be the best time to impose unpopular but necessary changes.
I agree that it will be trouble if the Democrats lack significant opposition for too long. Politicians aren't likely to be very responsive to their constituency if they have no significant opposition to worry about.

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quantumfluff
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Icon 1 posted October 30, 2008 19:38      Profile for quantumfluff     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
There are ebbs and tides to all of this. In the 50's and 60's, the northeast used to vote republican, while the bible belt was often democrat. It made sense. The republicans were dominated by fiscal conservatives who appealed to business interests in NY, CT and MA. The democrats favored social policy that religious groups could embrace.

In the 80's, the republicans realized that they could get people riled up about abortion, and bought off the fundamentalist vote on this single issue. Then the proceeded to borrow and spend their way into massive deficit. (democrats may be guilty of taxing and spending, but that's actually more fiscally sound. Neither party has much stomach for doing the right thing, which is simply spending less). This earned the ire of the commercial interests, who really do care about a well run country (even if they like a little extra helping of gravy on their plate).

I'm hoping that this election will help set things right - that politics will once again marginalize the christian fundamentalists (who are increasingly a minority of the population) and focus on things with impact. I think we might see a time when everyone realizes that the most important thing about education is not teaching evolution, but rather making sure we train enough engineers to compete in a global economy.

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TheMoMan
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Icon 1 posted October 31, 2008 03:53      Profile for TheMoMan         Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
____________________ I agree that at face value that VAT and Sales taxes are regressive. However with investment credits, and other tax dodges, many of the rich get off scott free. Some maids, waitresses and other service people pay a larger rate than the customers. Michigan has a Sales Tax that exempts food and grocery items, but not liquor, and tobacco products. Many of the big rollers pay less percentage than their domestic help. IS THAT FAIR?

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Xanthine

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Icon 1 posted October 31, 2008 08:07      Profile for Xanthine     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
No. It's not fair. But neither is a regressive tax. I say close the loopholes so rich people can't take all those credits.

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CommanderShroom
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Icon 1 posted October 31, 2008 08:41      Profile for CommanderShroom     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Taxation of any kind, rarely is fair. The real challenge is making it less unfair.

The GOP has some hurdles to jump no matter what direction this next election goes. There has been a lot of bad press and bad feelings throughout the party. I think that the Democratic party has taken an unusual shift itself in the last decade. The last round of Senate and House elections brought a large amount of extremely moderate Democrats on board. In many ways some of the newest people would have aligned themselves to the Republican party a few years before. This makes for an unusual shift.

It could mean a reversal of focus between the Democratic and Republican parties, it could mean that one of the parties will go the way of the Whigs. And in a decade we will be having similar debates about a pair of very different groups being the sole powers in the two-party system.

There is a lot hanging on these elections. And I am not talking about just the major issues here either. I honestly think that this round of elections will force a shift of focus on both parties, whichever winds up holding the White House.

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Oz, the Wizard of
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Icon 1 posted October 31, 2008 12:46      Profile for Oz, the Wizard of   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
<tinfoil hat>

Sometimes, sometimes, I hope that the upcoming divide (which, I think, will land us with Republicans and Evangelicals as separate parties) results in in-state power struggles, triggering mass exodus of certain demographics to and from certain states (coastal Evangelicals moving to the bible belt, central progressives heading east or westward). The remaining minority states will feel oppressed at the hands of whichever party holds the federal government, and will opt for rebellion. The resulting conflict galvanizes the issue of states rights, and in the series of secessions that follow, I wake up to a free and independent Cascadia.

But, in the unlikely event it occurs, I don't see this happening until 2016 at the very earliest. Might as well try to fix up the current system in the interim.

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Callipygous
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Icon 1 posted October 31, 2008 16:30      Profile for Callipygous     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
The title of this thread reminds me rather too uncomfortably of that famous photo from the 1948 election of Harry Truman holding up a newspaper with the headline "Dewey Wins!". In a less rational vein, I worry, today being Halloween, that just like the monster in John Carpenter's movie of the same name, the McCain campaign will drag itself off the ground, unfeasibly huge kitchen knife in hand, and lurch into the White House. So until Nov 4th, let's hope all those good intentions translate into votes. If they don't I'll be devastated.

However if the election result reflects the polls as they are now, I would guess that in the short term the Republican Party will shift even further to the right.

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The Famous Druid

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Icon 1 posted November 01, 2008 01:16      Profile for The Famous Druid     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Callipygous:
However if the election result reflects the polls as they are now, I would guess that in the short term the Republican Party will shift even further to the right.

Reminds me of an election in my home state here in oz. A conservative government were defeated at an election, and the party faithful convinced themselves that there was nothing wrong with their policies, the result was 'an accident', 3 million voters slipped with their pencils on election day, and the whole thing was a tragic mistake.

So, for their entire first term in opposition, they didn't come up with a single significant new policy.

Their next election campaign could be summarized as "you got it wrong last time - now's your chance to set things right". They won 17 of 88 seats - their worst result in half a century.

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ASM65816
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Icon 1 posted November 03, 2008 23:51      Profile for ASM65816   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
quote:
Topic: What will happen to the GOP after Nov 4?
It's irrelevant. The point is moot.

In the 2000 US Election -- "the Media" was in FULL Hysteria mode over "hanging chads."

In the 2008 US Election -- "the Media" (aka. Mainstream Media) is claiming that 14 states investigating undeniable voter registration fraud is OVERREACTION.

Check this out: according to "the Media", don't worry if more than 100% of votes are counted.
quote:
Swing State's Counties May Report More Than 100% Voter Turnout
    The Huffington Post,     November 4, 2008

"If the anomaly does happen, it won't mean that some people have voted twice"

It's pretty clear -- "the Media" chose the 2008 US President several months ago.

The courts (judges) are owned as well. Do you see serious investigation of Democrats being implicated in election fraud? No -- "the Media" is crying about ACORN being the innocent victim of an Evil Republican plot.

Somehow "the Media" fails to see why voter registrations for "Mickey Mouse" would draw suspicions of fraud.

Even when ACORN is caught "not telling the truth" -- "they" still want to put Republicans on trial, not Democrats.
quote:
Groupís Tally of New Voters Was Vastly Overstated
    The New York Times,     October 23, 2008

On Oct. 6, the community organizing group Acorn and an affiliated charity called Project Vote announced with jubilation that they had registered 1.3 million new voters. But it turns out the claim was a wild exaggeration, and the real number of newly registered voters nationwide is closer to 450,000, Project Voteís executive director, Michael Slater, said in an interview.

By the way, I had the original SNL "C-SPAN Bailout" skit recorded on DVR (cable) where the caption "People Who Should Be Shot" was under the Sandlers. I watched the skit about three times. The fourth time I wanted to watch it -- THE ENTIRE SNL RECORDING WAS REDUCED TO ONE MINUTE. (This was about two weeks after the show first aired.) FYI: I find the loss of the recording VERY Suspicious.

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Once a proud programmer of Apple II's, he now spends his days and nights in cheap dives fraternizing with exotic dancers....

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The Famous Druid

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Icon 1 posted November 04, 2008 01:47      Profile for The Famous Druid     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
WATER? FECK!

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Callipygous
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Icon 1 posted November 04, 2008 02:15      Profile for Callipygous     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by ASM65816:
quote:
Topic: What will happen to the GOP after Nov 4?
whine whine whine the election is unfair whine whine whine boo hoo no one believes us because Rush Limbaugh has not been appointed Information Commissar - whine whine whine the election is being stolen from us because we can't stop enough poor people from voting - boo hoo
ASM there has been an 8 year experiment of your style of government. People have had enough. They just don't like it. Suck it up, and get on with your life.

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"Knowledge is Power. France is Bacon" - Milton

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GrumpySteen

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Icon 1 posted November 04, 2008 06:15      Profile for GrumpySteen     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
ASM65816 wrote:
By the way, I had the original SNL "C-SPAN Bailout" skit recorded on DVR (cable) where the caption "People Who Should Be Shot" was under the Sandlers. I watched the skit about three times. The fourth time I wanted to watch it -- THE ENTIRE SNL RECORDING WAS REDUCED TO ONE MINUTE. (This was about two weeks after the show first aired.) FYI: I find the loss of the recording VERY Suspicious.

Oh teh noes! Your Tivo is controlled by terrorists!

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The Famous Druid

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Icon 1 posted November 04, 2008 12:27      Profile for The Famous Druid     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by GrumpySteen:
ASM65816 wrote:
By the way, I had the original SNL "C-SPAN Bailout" skit recorded on DVR (cable) where the caption "People Who Should Be Shot" was under the Sandlers. I watched the skit about three times. The fourth time I wanted to watch it -- THE ENTIRE SNL RECORDING WAS REDUCED TO ONE MINUTE. (This was about two weeks after the show first aired.) FYI: I find the loss of the recording VERY Suspicious.

Oh teh noes! Your Tivo is controlled by terrorists!

ASM at his delusional best! [Applause] [Applause] [Applause] [Applause] [Applause]

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spungo
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Icon 1 posted November 04, 2008 12:33      Profile for spungo     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by The Famous Druid:
WATER? FECK!

Big bras!

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Icon 1 posted November 04, 2008 14:28      Profile for Oz, the Wizard of   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Maybe my computer is broken -- whenever I go to read a post from ASM, it just says "brown people are scary!" over and over.

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Sxeptomaniac

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Icon 1 posted November 05, 2008 22:19      Profile for Sxeptomaniac   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
It begins. I'm just surprised that Fox News seems to be rejecting Palin with this. With some of her bad mistakes, will the core of the party reject her as a person without rejecting the bad politics she personified, thus just continue to limp along, not quite a threat, but not to be completely ignored?

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