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Author Topic: Libertarians Promote Predatory Lending
Colonel Panic
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Icon 1 posted February 14, 2008 17:41      Profile for Colonel Panic         Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
As I have noted before, once Libertarians have ensconced themselves into the US Government they will allow Corporate Feudalism to devastate the American economy, in much the same way it was able to do in the late 19th and early 20th centuries.

Here is an example where such Libertarian-style "deregulation" allowed corrupt businesses and politicians to work together to destabilize the mortgage market and endanger the world economy.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/13/AR2008021302783.html?hpid=opinionsbox1

Colonel Panic

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TheMoMan
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Icon 1 posted February 15, 2008 02:23      Profile for TheMoMan         Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
________________________ Just GWB (THE SHRUB) being him self. Remember this is the same man that wanted to privitise Social Security.

________________________ If you are a history buff you will find a lot of parallels with the great crash and the following depression, I hope that it does not turn out the same.

_________________________ I have watched my IRA tank, right now if I keep making withdrawls at the same rate I was it will be gone in five years. Before this Subprime mess, I could not have depleated it as I was only skimming some of the interest.

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Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.


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Ashitaka

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Icon 1 posted February 15, 2008 04:26      Profile for Ashitaka     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Predatory lending is integral in American's broken and antiquated banking system,

irregardless of the libertarians.

Don't be prey.

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YaYawoman

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Icon 1 posted February 17, 2008 19:32      Profile for YaYawoman     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Predatory lending and predatory borrowing. Greed and stupidity. Up and down the real estate/ credit market food chain.

The past 5 years of real estate bubble was illusion. "buy now, or be priced out forever" or "they're not making any more land" or "real estate never goes down" and my personal favorite "renting is just throwing money away". Grrrr.

Yes virginia, real estate does decline. Sometimes it crashes. Purchasing a house? Traditionally it was reccomended to stretch no further than 2.5/3 x per income.

through in the exotic "affordability products" Of I/o Pay-option ARMS and wham.

Damn you Greenspan, advising people to get arms in such a low-rate environment. The time ARMS make sense is when interest rates are high. You are betting they will adjust down. grrr.

Tradtionally also it was known that if you were going to be in an area or housing situation 7 years or less to rent. The transaction costs of buying and selling would not lead to profit, and may have actually cost.

People using helocs and cash out refi's were just plain old retarded too. A house is not an ATM. It is not an "investment". It is shelter, period. Now people are seeing the dark side of sucking equity out of their house for plain old consumption. dumbasses

Never sign a contract without understanding exactly what it says. period.

And the lenders? Let 'em suck it up. Major dumbasses loaning 125 percent of a value of a new house. Who loans 100's of thousands of dollars fora house with no money down? With NINJA loans? Those are no income, no job no assaet loans. They were real, honest. Stated income? meh. They need to eat it so sanity will return to underwriting.

The Feds fought the states. many states were trying to enact laws and regulations that would have at least tried to slow down this goddamn train, but were prevented by the feds.

Screw the flippers, the people buying 2 3 or more properties with leverage, screw the lenders who went frigging insane, screw the states with their rubberstamping zoning councils, it is blowing up. Commercial real estate is the shoe dropping now, then the monolines, then the CDO's and CDS's. When do the Muni's start defaulting?

Moman, there are many scary parrallels to the crash of 29 and the great depresssion, but right now we are in a worse position.

During the crash and the depression we were not an international debtor, we had many new factories, many more people had access to food production such as farms and gardens and were better educated. It was very bad then even with those plusses. imagine jane and joe six pack, in suburban lower income areas tring to deal with depression-style issues. yeah, right.

Sorry guys, hobby topic of mine.

Posts: 765 | From: virginia | Registered: Oct 2005  |  IP: Logged
TheMoMan
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Icon 1 posted February 18, 2008 07:55      Profile for TheMoMan         Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
_____________________ YaYawoman, I must agree with many of your points, but this time even the major French Banks are involved. The Cobweb cast by this violation of banking laws and commom sense is huge and will involve every body not just Small scale Americans but globally. Pension Funds, Hedge Funds, and Mutual Funds All BOUGHT IN ON THIS HIGH RATE OF RETURN. WE ARE ONLY LOOKING AT THE TIP OF THE ICEBERG AND STILL HAVE NOT SOUNDED THE COLLISION ALARM.

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Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.


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Posts: 5848 | From: Just South of the Huron National Forest, in the water shed of the Rifle River | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
spungo
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Icon 1 posted February 18, 2008 12:00      Profile for spungo     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Ashitaka:
irregardless ...

Errm... wtf?

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Ashitaka

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Icon 1 posted February 18, 2008 12:06      Profile for Ashitaka     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by spungo:
quote:
Originally posted by Ashitaka:
irregardless ...

Errm... wtf?
Are you complaining I am not using formal tone in my writting in these forums?

Leck mich

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spungo
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Icon 1 posted February 18, 2008 13:06      Profile for spungo     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
It's not even a word.

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Grummash

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Icon 1 posted February 18, 2008 13:32      Profile for Grummash     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
My boss uses the bastardisation "irregardless" far too often. I would like to slap him and shout "IRRESPECTIVE!" every time he does! [Wink]

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YaYawoman

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Icon 1 posted February 18, 2008 16:58      Profile for YaYawoman     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Moman

yep. It is a global credit crunch. It has gone beyond plain old liquidity issues and now is all about solvency.

It is everwhere. Germany's IKB getting bailed out, swiss bank UBS total writedowns due to MBS losses is now over 18 billion. china around 8billion last I heard. When the poster children for stodgy responsible banking (the swiss) get creamed on shoddy securities, you know that a giant problem exists.

4 towns in norway got creamed for many many millions of dollars thanks to citi bank.

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSL2110334420071121

A town in Mass lost 12 million, and got reimbursed by meril lynch. springfield finally finally finally actually had a surplus and tried to invest it. ha. A dying new england mill town clawing its way out of recievership and wham.

Here is another link about a CDS gone bad. New Jersey this time.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=am3BVJNQmGPo

There are more out there. tons.

I believe that from bernanke and paulson to Pres. Bush, to down the food chain, that those in the know are scared spitless, and that something even worse economically is coming down the road.

Wanna be really scared? read about derivatives, credit default swaps, and other products of the "new paradigm fiancial engineering".

Planning on retiring? If you are a boomer, look out. 401k? going to get trashed. Social security? iffy. Pension??? hahahahaha. One of the first things to get tossed in a BK and for those that think the PBGC will pick up the slack, there aint enough funds. Sell your house and relocate to cheaper area? Between the value of your house crashing, owing more on a mortgage/heloc than it is worth, what do you think is going to happen? Also demographics. Lots and lots of people have that retirement "plan". Smaller generations following them. Many sellers, few buyers. what happens to price? dooowwwwwn. bye bye paid for retirement.

This is not just a subprime issue either. Payoption, I/o, and the other exotic loans are considered alt-a, which is not subprime. it is climbing up the fico ladder and it will slam all of us, either through the pension funds, town surpluse investments, state insolvencies and bank runs/closures.

Tons more about this topic has been written, lots of info out there. This is interestin times we are living in people. whoooohooo!!!

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tweety
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Icon 2 posted February 18, 2008 17:02      Profile for tweety   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
I saw this whole mess coming years ago. The hot thing was the interest only mortgage. Wow, what a friggin' brilliant idea, huh? Turn house ownership into renting from the bank. Except, with the added gotcha that you just don't owe the bank $1500 a month, but whatever the house was valued at at the time you signed the paperwork.

The thing that opened my eyes was the rapid pace at which property values were increasing. Un-friggin' believable. I think this is the best thing to happen to real estate in quite some time. Houses being built everywhere, and, yet, as the supply went up, so did the valuations. Um, I'm not an economist, but, since when do prices go up with supply? Always thought it was an inverse equation.

Anyway, real world example of the silliness of housing values. A couple of years after my mother passed away my father remarried. He sold the house I grew up in for more than it was worth considering it's condition, yet about US $100K less than its market value at the time. He still made a pretty penny. Anyway, he and his new wife bought a 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath townhome for US$450K. It's at best 2/3 the size of the place I grew up in. Couldn't be more than about 1400 sq ft.

Another good example. Way back in 2001 we moved down to Orlando, FL. Well, way outside, in an unincorporated area of Kissimmee. Anyway, turns out that within about month of closing on our house, it was already worth US$3000 more than we paid for it. How's that for building equity? Never took a penny out until we moved. We've been renting ever since.

My wife and I are planning a move to the Dallas/Ft. Worth area and are looking at homes in the 2500 - 3000 sq ft range. Prices? Between US$150K - $200K. A free standing home can be had for less than half the price of the townhome my father bought. Of course, it depends on where you buy, but even then you can get a great 5000 sq ft home for maybe US$100K more than my father paid for his smallish townhome. I'm pretty stoked as I know we can sell, if we want to, in about 5 or 6 years and make some decent money. And, if we decide to stay it's a win.

The thing that gets me about this whole mess is that people are surprised that the whole thing came crashing down? Once everyone who's going to buy has bought, who's left to sell to?

Yayawoman, I have to say, I wholeheartedly agree with you. Everyone who was involved with this was stupid. But, it's the American culture to stretch ourselves beyond the financial breaking point just to get the shiny trinkets. We'll just find other, more creative ways to continue with our ever expanding standard of living. It's not like we're the only ones in the world trying to live this way. Given half a chance most people in other countries follow suit.

Also, it's not the first recession, and won't be the last. And, if it gets worse than that, it's not the first depression we've seen in this country. Besides, think of all the good that will come if most of us have to start growing our own vegetables. All that driving to the grocery store will stop, which means less gas consumption, which means less greenhouse gas emissions. More greenery also means more CO2 usage, which will decrease the CO2 levels in the atmosphere. Not to sound, well, morbid, but maybe a depression is what the environment needs.

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YaYawoman

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Icon 1 posted February 18, 2008 17:16      Profile for YaYawoman     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Hey tweety

I agree that the bubble popping in housing is a good thing. I also agree that recessions and depressions are a neccesary part of the business cycle. Clears out weak hands and malinvestments.

However this government is hellbent on stopping the business cycle. Only up up up. They have managed to hold off a recession through manipulation of interest rates and ponzi finance. They are hitting the end of the line however. NOw what might have been a mild recession has been dammed up and the pressure and force when it finally hits will be like when water comes from behind a broken damm.

If you dont mind a bit of advice, please dont buy just yet when you get to texas. wait and rent a year or two. two sites you may want to check out and read here and there are:

www.thehousingbubbleblog.com

and

www.calculatedrisk.blogspot.com

the housing blog is like a digest. Ben Jones runs it and collects quotes and articles from all over the world every day and links them. The comments kick butt. Several texas posters. Calculated risk lots of info, graphs, analysis and opinion. They were cited in an opening paragpraph to a fed paper and also cited many times by Krugman.

People think housing is toast now? This is only the beginning. Bloodbath coming.

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The Famous Druid

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Icon 1 posted February 18, 2008 17:16      Profile for The Famous Druid     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
This storm has been a mere rumbling on the horizon here in oz, but that probably won't last.

The previous government (I just love referring to that pack of [email protected]@rds as 'the previous government) changed the tax rules to make 'investment' in real estate much more attractive, the costs associated with investment properties are 100% deductible, but you only pay tax on 1/2 your profits. The result, we've become a nation of landlords, mostly with "negative geared" investments (i.e. the rent received doesn't come close to covering the expenses, it's deliberately arranged that way to maximize the tax benefits).

When a Ford plant announced it would be closing recently, a news crew went to the plant and interviewed the workers just after the announcement. The first guy they spoke to said "I'm really worried, I have 2 investment properties and I don't know how I'm going to keep up the payments".

So, the first time there's a bit of a downturn in the economy landlords like that will be forced to sell, which will drive prices down, which will tempt others whose debt exceeds the property value to walk away from the loan and let the bank deal with the mess...

I've seen what happens when banks go broke, it happened to a very small bank here in oz in the 90's, and it's not pretty. If big banks go under, we're in real trouble.

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tweety
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Icon 1 posted February 18, 2008 17:44      Profile for tweety   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Yayawoman, thanks for the sites. I'll take a look at them. Funny you mention renting first, it's something we've been considering, although not too seriously. Truth is, we're looking to build roots. We've been living in the Midwest for quite a number of years, renting, and now that we've pinpointed the best place for us, it's time to settle down.

The place we're currently renting is an investment property. The guy who bought it purchased it from a couple who thought they'd flip it. I think the original owners lost money on the deal. It's a 1200 sq. ft loft, above stores, and I believe sold for somewhere north of US$200K. Our landlord has another business which is winding down and is looking to get into something else. He owns two other lofts in our building and is looking to purchase other property. From what he's said, mostly foreclosed properties and the like. So, there are people out there buying, it's just not at the pace that could sustain the ever upward momentum created by stupidity. So, I don't see the world coming to an end.

Everyone also needs to remember that the Chinese economy has been growing at 10% year over year. I have a feeling that their economy, along with any other hotspots, will help to, at the very least, cushion the economic fallout. Plus, the US economy is 2/3 consumer spending, which wasn't true during the Great Depression. Hence, the tax refunds during the last recession.

Now, anyone else find it interesting/strange/amusing that the first shrub left us with a recession upon leaving office and now it's looking to be the same thing with shrub jr?

Lastly, if I could find it, I would. Regardless, I remember reading somewhere the predictions of Nostradamus (big thing during Gulf War I), and it would seem that we are heading toward some great world wide depression and WWIII with the Muslim nations, which will precipitate the anti-Christ coming to power and forming a World Government. Or, maybe that was the interpretation of the Book of Revelations. Can't remember. Either way, interesting in how current events are paralleling, at least to some degree, that interpretation.

Now, I think I'll leave you all with that happy thought.

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YaYawoman

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Icon 1 posted February 18, 2008 17:54      Profile for YaYawoman     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
TFD

Alot of aussie posters/info at the blog I mentioned. Oz sounds like it is right on a precipice. crap, the whole ponzi scheme world wide is on a precipice. Nothing like buying a rental investment that not only does not cash flow, but eats more of your money, and for what? Tax deductions and the possibility of price appreciation. Ouch.

This bubble bust/correction will last several years. Ivy Zellman, an analyst for credit suisse, had a chart released that showed different waves of resets for ARMs. We are at the tail end of a big wave. The next starts in 2009.

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/08/arm-reset-charts.html

The link leads to a post about the BofA reset chart and Credit suisse chart/report.

One more thing to think about. The pay-option arm loan. California is infested with these. Many of the super bubbilicious areas are. This is how they work. Pulling numbers out of my butt for discussion purposes only. Say a mortgage with full interest and principal is 4k monthly. with a pay option arm you get to decide how much to pay that month. they give you several options.

A) full Prinipal and interest
B. interest only
c. less than interest only

So say the owner decides on c. well, say it was 1k. the 3 k difference is added to the balance of the loan. the loan balance increases. in each contract it is spelled out how far they can use that option. they are different per loan shop, per contract per person.110%,some 120 %, some 125.

anyways once the loan balance rises to a pre-agreed to amount, the recast happens. no more options, just full amortization. so, someone used to paying the 1 k, pays the full amt, but on a larger loan and most likely a reset raising the interest rate also. ka-pow. So even though the charts show the pattern for resets, they dont show recast, since that is a very individual thing resulting from each debt serfs individual decisions regarding the loan. Interesting, no? I think so, but then I am weird. so if you guys dont think it is, s'ok. hahahaha. who do you think the next studs terkel is going to be?

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YaYawoman

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Icon 1 posted February 18, 2008 18:07      Profile for YaYawoman     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Tweety

Yes people are still buying. My personal opinion is they are knife catching. but that is just me. If you find a house that you like and meets your needs and can afford and you hve no problem being in it for a very long time, go for it. Just saying be careful.

and the china and emerging market issue? It depends on the coupling/decoupling theory. IF they have managed to reach a point that they wont go under if they decouple from the us, then great. There are debates about that also. I guess we will know in a few years,eh?

And I dont think it is the End of Civilazation or gasp!THE END OF THE WORlD hahahahahaha. But many many people, businesses and communities are in for a big ol' bitch slap from reality when this finishes.

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tweety
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Icon 8 posted February 18, 2008 18:07      Profile for tweety   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Yayawoman - you brought up a great childhood memory of mine in regards to losing money for the tax beni. When I was a wee lad, oh, about 6, one of mother's uncles passed away. He not having any children, and she having been an only child, was the sole heir. Well, the will stipulated that $20K, cash, was to be set aside for myself and my then 2 brothers (I say then as another one of us came into being about 2 years later) as a college fund. Anyway, my father, the brilliant man that he is, decides that it's better to invest the $20K into a losing investment for the tax benefit. Needless to say, being the all-American family that we were, we lived a bit beyond our means, so there was no super college fund. In fact, of the 4 kids I got the least financial help from my family. My father ultimately ended up borrowing against the house and his retirement fund. I have nearly $30K in school loan debt. But, this is in actuality a whole rather long and bitter story.

So, no, saving tax money on losing investments never actually equates to greater wealth later. It just equates to stupid money management.

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YaYawoman

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Icon 1 posted February 18, 2008 18:28      Profile for YaYawoman     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
I apologize, but I have two more links, and then I will shut up. honest. The first is calculated risk, about the new guidelines PBGC is going to be using to invest. trying to juice returns, and darnit, they got a model so everthing is projected out 58 percent rosy. The second I really really urge you to read, whoever is reading this. It is about a very poor school district that wound up paying jpmorgan 2.9 million ot get OUT of a swap contract. Read it, weep and thne realize the pigmen bankers did it everywhere. small districts, states, and international. it will not end well.

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ay5LDbjbjy6c

OH, and Col? I just realized that even though this is sorta on topic, in a way i kinda jacked your thread, Im sorry. I meant this to be in response to your "libertarian". Yep, and liberals and conservatives and dems and repubs and the smart and the stupid and the rich and the poor and the shrinking middle class. It was everyone.

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The Famous Druid

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Icon 1 posted February 18, 2008 19:20      Profile for The Famous Druid     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
btw - I got my half-yearly mortgage statement from the bank the other day. It included a helpful little brochure entitled "Hints to help manage your payments" which basically consisted of three options for those having trouble making their payments..

1. Extend the term of your loan (i.e. pay less, for longer)

2. Go interest-only (i.e. an extreme form of option 1, extend your loan term to infinity)

3. Take a "payment holiday" of up to 12 months (i.e. make no payments now, but this time next year you'll be $30-40k deeper in debt than you are now)

I've never missed a mortgage payment in my life, they're sending these brochures out to all their victims^h^h^h^h^h^h^h borrowers.

/me suspects the banks are getting very nervous.

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