homeGeek CultureWebstoreeCards!Forums!Joy of Tech!AY2K!webcam

The Geek Culture Forums


Post New Topic  New Poll  Post A Reply
my profile | directory login | | search | faq | forum home
  next oldest topic   next newest topic
» The Geek Culture Forums   » News, Reviews, Views!   » Politics/Religion/Current Affairs   » Supermodels are savvy forex arbitrage savants as well? NO FAIR!!

 - UBBFriend: Email this page to someone!    
Author Topic: Supermodels are savvy forex arbitrage savants as well? NO FAIR!!
YaYawoman

Solid Nitrozanium SuperFan!
Member # 4505

Member Rated:
5
Icon 1 posted November 07, 2007 01:44      Profile for YaYawoman     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
This is news from yesterday, but really delicious.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aCs.keWwNdiY&refer=home

Supermodel Giselle Bundchen is refusing contracts denominated in dollars. It was cute and funny as it made the rounds on some economic/financial sites I read. Funny that is, until THIS happened:

http://sg.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20071102/tbs-dollar-index-hits-new-all-time-low-7318940.html

Dollar is crashing, bang boom as we speak. China announced tonite that they were going to start investing their reserves in stronger currencies. No big deal, they have been rattling this cage since the trade war/tarriff talk started. Only this time, they did it.

Bye bye dollar, we hardly knew ye'.

So super models not only have beauty AND money, but brains as well. sigh.

PS spot price of gold over 820.00 and barrel oil topped 98.00USD overnight. sweet dreams.

Posts: 765 | From: virginia | Registered: Oct 2005  |  IP: Logged
The Famous Druid

Gold Hearted SuperFan!
Member # 1769

Member Rated:
4
Icon 1 posted November 07, 2007 03:21      Profile for The Famous Druid     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
6 years ago, a US dollar would buy you $2.05 aussie, today you'll get $A1.05, and once the chinese decision flows through to the markets, you'll be lucky to find anyone who wants those silly green pieces of paper.

Looks like that "cut taxes and spend like drunken sailors" economics isn't working as well as hoped.

--------------------
If you watch 'The History Of NASA' backwards, it's about a space agency that has no manned spaceflight capability, then does low-orbit flights, then lands on the Moon.

Posts: 10668 | From: Melbourne, Australia | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
Ashitaka

SuperFan!
Member # 4924

Member Rated:
4
Icon 1 posted November 07, 2007 04:42      Profile for Ashitaka     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
My wife, finance major and ex goldman sachs employee, always tried to get me to invest in the dollar. Right now we have 1/3 our house savingas in the dollar but 2/3 in swiss currency stock. Despite being able to get 4+ percent interest in Certificates of Deposit, I think we are going to lose money in this end. But whoo hoo, my franks and euro now buy my american family members more christmas present for the buck when I buy stuff online in america and have it sent to them. TFD, that same thing has happed with the CHF compared to the dollar, but unfortunatly the frank is losing to the Euro also.

We should invest in the Euro, I see people can get 3.33% for a 24 month CD.

--------------------
"If they're not gonna make a distinction between Muslims and violent extremists, then why should I take the time to distinguish between decent, fearful white people and racists?"

-Assif Mandvi

Posts: 3089 | From: Switzerland | Registered: Feb 2006  |  IP: Logged
Ugh, MightyClub
BlabberMouth, the Next Generation
Member # 3112

Member Rated:
5
Icon 1 posted November 07, 2007 15:06      Profile for Ugh, MightyClub     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
That's a bit alarmist, isn't it, YaYa? "China" annouced no such thing -- a minister who is known for shooting his mouth off without thinking made the comments. A crash in the dollar makes very little sense for China given the amount of US-denominated reserves the currently have. Why would you kick the legs out from under your assets *before* you sell them off?

And a weak dollar isn't all bad. It makes our exports more attractive, and discourages US consumers from buying imported goods, which should improve our trade balance.

--------------------
Ugh!

Posts: 1739 | From: Ithaca, NY | Registered: Dec 2004  |  IP: Logged
YaYawoman

Solid Nitrozanium SuperFan!
Member # 4505

Member Rated:
5
Icon 1 posted November 07, 2007 19:19      Profile for YaYawoman     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Well ugh, after re-reading my post, I guess I can see how that may be alarmist sounding.

They (hahaha, the infamous 'they') have rattled that cage previously. This time however I think as they were rattling someone dumped a buttload of dollars. The dollar has been consistently weakening over the past 5 years (5 years ago the dollar index was 120 earlier this morning was 76)but there was a large across the board dump last night. I wonder how many quant funds and forex cowboys got burned?

in my personal, limited opinion, I can see it as a warning/message to the rising anti-china anti- trade tarriff protectionist movement. Congress critters whore themselves for votes and right now are riding a protectionist sentiment.

Yes I do realize this was a statment from a person, not china, however from what I understand(please if someone KNOWS correct me or chime in) in china information flow is not free, and public statments are very very vetted before allowing to be seen by the light of the day so to speak. If that is the case, then in some ways this is the actual position china is taking. If not, then yeah just some minister spouting from the hip.

On the weakening dollar, it depends which side of the dollar you are in. Manufacturing and export, yeah, slightly better off. How many american workers are employed in manufacturing? What exactly is still manufactured here? I know there is some. cars, some tools, heavy equipment. but how many americans will benefit directly? NOt many. So if you are not involved in manufacturing then you get a weaker dollar, weaker dollar means less purchasing power. so. on the small scale personal level, it is a wash to a negative.

Also with a weakening dollar there is the lack of foreign investment. Last info I saw it was estimated that the usa needs 70 billion a month from foreign treasury purchases to fund the interest on our debt. Weak dollar leads to less investment, leads to higher and higher interest rates to attract foregin capital, leads to more difficulty for rank and file to borrow, pay debt service, and pay for basics.

I enjoy sounding silly and alarmist at times, character flaw on my part. But I really truly do believe This economic era we are in is going to be historic. The world isnt going to end or anything, but it will be fun to be boring grand children with the stories of 'ought seven'. heehee i can see their eye-rolls now.

Posts: 765 | From: virginia | Registered: Oct 2005  |  IP: Logged
Callipygous
BlabberMouth, a Blabber Odyssey
Member # 2071

Member Rated:
4
Icon 1 posted November 08, 2007 02:43      Profile for Callipygous     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Yayawoman I think you are right to be worried. The dollar would be in a much worse state if China hadn't been buying dollars in such large quantities over the last few years. I don't think they will dispose of their huge dollar holdings now, as the threat of doing so is much more useful to them as a political weapon in any negotiations with the US. Nonetheless this is not a good position to be in. Sooner or later the US is going to have to balance its budget, and the longer you leave it, the greater the pain. Some have speculated that this does represent a historic moment when the economic and financial centre of the world shifts from New York to Beijing, rather as World War 1 similarly was the point at which it moved from London to New York. Time will tell.

I do not understand why the Republicans are so widely thought of as being more fiscally responsible and better stewards of the economy than the Democrats, when the record consistently shows the reverse to be true.

--------------------
"Knowledge is Power. France is Bacon" - Milton

Posts: 2922 | From: Brighton - UK | Registered: Mar 2003  |  IP: Logged
TheMoMan
BlabberMouth, a Blabber Odyssey
Member # 1659

Member Rated:
4
Icon 1 posted November 08, 2007 09:25      Profile for TheMoMan         Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Callipygous & YaYawoman _____________________ I for one do not believe that the Chinese will dump dollars, as they dump them the value keeps going down. Then holding onto them doesn't make much sense . Back in the Seventies J. Carter put Paul Volker in charge of the Fed. He started the recovery that followed, R. Reagon was smart enouh to see that the recovery was happening and left Volker in charge. Now we have had the Enron and other fiascos plus The Shrub. Anybody want some dolars? Or go buy energy stocks.

--------------------
Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.


Benjamin Franklin,

Posts: 5835 | From: Just South of the Huron National Forest, in the water shed of the Rifle River | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Ugh, MightyClub
BlabberMouth, the Next Generation
Member # 3112

Member Rated:
5
Icon 1 posted November 08, 2007 10:23      Profile for Ugh, MightyClub     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Hey, being alarmist *is* fun sometimes. Sometimes we (I see your infamous "they" and raise it a "we" bit, with a bad pun to boot!) Damn. Where was I? Sometimes we need an alarmist kick in the pants to make sure our head isn't buried in the sand (and/or our collective arse).

Agreed, a continuously weakening dollar is not a great thing overall. However, I still argue that if the greenback weakens enough against the currencies of countries with whom we have a large trade deficit it will encourage consumers to rethink their habits. In the case of oil it will hopefully spur a movement back to fuel efficient vehicles. In the case of manufactured goods it may encourage US companies to bring manufacturing back home. But I'm not an economist, so maybe I'm way off base. It's all heavily dependent as well on other pieces of fiscal policy being in place. The feds need to get their act together and bring spending under control and/or nudge taxes so we can get the budget balanced, for one thing.

--------------------
Ugh!

Posts: 1739 | From: Ithaca, NY | Registered: Dec 2004  |  IP: Logged
Chesty
Assimilated
Member # 2460

Member Rated:
2
Icon 1 posted November 08, 2007 10:58      Profile for Chesty         Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
But she likes the USA!

 -

Posts: 416 | From: The Beach | Registered: Nov 2003  |  IP: Logged
Veronica
Maximum Newbie
Member # 12054

Rate Member
Icon 1 posted November 08, 2007 11:57      Profile for Veronica         Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
id want to get paid in euros if it meant more money too!!

--------------------
Makeup is my Art<3
m&j

Posts: 13 | Registered: Oct 2007  |  IP: Logged
Serenak

Member # 2950

Member Rated:
4
Icon 1 posted November 08, 2007 14:51      Profile for Serenak     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
MoMan and Calli...

You are like me no doubt old enough to remember when the Dollar was at $2+ to the (US to UK) and I remember when the dollar first got stronger than that - (the sky was falling and the world economy was ruined...) That trend ran till it was nearly $1=1 and again the world was going to go to hell in the much feted "handbasket/handcart" and the sky would fall...

Things settled and for a very long time we seem to have been at a long period of about 1 to $1.50ish now it is moving again and we have shifted back to $2 to the 1 (those even older than many of us will tell you they remember when the pound weakened below $3 the world.... etc etc.)

Right now I feel for those getting hurt by these shifts - but in a longer view many would say the balance is just shifting back to somewhere that was normal 20+years back.

Truth is life is full of horrible shifts like this - allegedly more of them and they happen more frequently now than in the past - but I only have my short 40+ years and history texts to go by...

I bet if I was a home based weaver at the time of the first machine looms I would not feel any better knowing it was a "global economic/industrial market realignment"... I mean that doesn't actually help me any putting food on my table does it?

Basically history glosses over the personal disasters it leaves in its wake, and we will be no different than any other generation before us. Some of us will get shafted and some will luckily profit from changes that in reality have nothing to do with them.


That is life - and sometimes it stinks - hasn't changed in the last 4000 years - can't see it changing any time soon.

--------------------
"So if you want my address - it's No. 1 at the end of the bar, where I sit with the broken angels, clutching at straws and nursing my scars..."

Posts: 1936 | From: Suffolk England | Registered: Sep 2004  |  IP: Logged
Ugh, MightyClub
BlabberMouth, the Next Generation
Member # 3112

Member Rated:
5
Icon 1 posted November 08, 2007 16:25      Profile for Ugh, MightyClub     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Aha, thanks Serenak, that reminds me of another point I wanted to make. And that is that even if we are in fact seeing a shift of the financial center of the world from the US to China, that doesn't necessarily mean life as we know it will end. As calli pointed out, this is not the first time such a thing has happened. The nations of Europe are still vibrant, and the people generally happy. Sure, it's great to be king of the mountain, but on the flip side, everyone hates the king, right? Who needs that stress [Smile]

--------------------
Ugh!

Posts: 1739 | From: Ithaca, NY | Registered: Dec 2004  |  IP: Logged
YaYawoman

Solid Nitrozanium SuperFan!
Member # 4505

Member Rated:
5
Icon 1 posted November 08, 2007 16:27      Profile for YaYawoman     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Serenak--Yeah, I know, life goes on and people adjust then move on and lead as productive a life as they can. Hence my comment about the world willnot end, just lots of upheaval as we adjust.

Another point I just realized after thinking a bit and poking around some other sites about china and the dollarbomb is this: We are trying very hard to devalue the dollar no matter what Hanky panky Paulson may blather about a strong dollar policy (more on that at the end) and that is steadily eroding the value of their holdings. Vast large holdings which come closer and closer to transforming into a big pile of steaming poo. Well, what hasnt already been transformed by todays global financial alchemy, so, shake rattle and dump a portion to warn "Hey you bungholes, defend and strengthen your currency or we will 'devalue' for you. Far further,harder, faster than you ever wanted or dreamed in your baddest nightmare".

Did anyone see Bernanke in front of congress today? 2 funnies from it. A congresscritter staring glassy eyed holding her head up and looking like a student in their least favorite mandatory class. Also at one point a banner under the picture on cnn quoting Spanky Bernanke about the dollar: Bernanke believes the dollar will be of primary importance in the world. hahahahaha. Nothing about strong, nothing about value, but important. hahahaha.

This is a global issue, and yes we will all adapt but it will be bumpy.

Picture todays fat dumb and happy americans. Life is good, life was good, and gosh n golly life will not only be good but get better. Buy on credit leverage up more more more. Now picture as all that comes to a halt, credit even tighter than now, 2 million projected foreclosures, contracting economy, weak dollar.

They will be angry and desperate. The pols will be afraid and desperate. Watch world conflict rise as they try to distract the populace with more wars as they try to goose the economy with even more military spending. The sheep will be looking for someone to tell them what to do. Look out when that happens, you think shrub was bad?

EDIT: A small ps. Events surrounding china will depend on one thing. Do they have a strong enough economy to decouple from the usa? Right now Europe is a larger area they are exporting to. If they can decouple, then they will after the olympics. If not then all this posturing is just show. I guess we will know after the olympics are done and over. [Smile]

EDIT #2: Sorry sorry, but I forgot to say to Ugh that the FED is not in control of this party. they can tweak the rates, they can expand and contract with repos and stuff, but alot of money creation now is outside their control. Hedge funds, sivs etc etc are creating more than the fed has actual control over. look at the last rate cut, cut the rate, interest rates UP for mortgages, not in their realm anymore. sorry, rambling at work and hurrying.

everyone have a great day. unless of course you dont want to, then have whatever kind of day you do.

Posts: 765 | From: virginia | Registered: Oct 2005  |  IP: Logged
The Famous Druid

Gold Hearted SuperFan!
Member # 1769

Member Rated:
4
Icon 1 posted November 08, 2007 19:25      Profile for The Famous Druid     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by YaYawoman:
Picture todays fat dumb and happy americans. Life is good, life was good, and gosh n golly life will not only be good but get better. Buy on credit leverage up more more more. Now picture as all that comes to a halt, credit even tighter than now, 2 million projected foreclosures, contracting economy, weak dollar.

America's currently running a trade deficit of around $200 per person per month, i.e. the 'average' American is consuming $200/month more than they produce. So far, the world's bankers have been willing to lend to you, because they figure you're good for it.

Imagine that changed, the world stopped lending you money. You'd have to start living within your means, $200 per person per month is a lot of belt-tightening.

Now imagine the bankers start calling in those IOUs. US foreign debt is over $10 trillion, that's over $33,000 per head, or 86% of annual GDP. They don't make belts that tight.

If those numbers sound scary, you should look at some other 'wealthy' nations, they make America look really good.

Australia: 93% of GDP.
France: 173% of GDP
Switzerland: 300% of GDP
UK: 387% of GDP

We've all been on a debt-fueled binge of consumption, and the day of reckoning will come, sooner or later.

--------------------
If you watch 'The History Of NASA' backwards, it's about a space agency that has no manned spaceflight capability, then does low-orbit flights, then lands on the Moon.

Posts: 10668 | From: Melbourne, Australia | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
TheMoMan
BlabberMouth, a Blabber Odyssey
Member # 1659

Member Rated:
4
Icon 1 posted November 09, 2007 02:25      Profile for TheMoMan         Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Hi All ____________________________ I think it was about 1985, I took my mother to Ireland to see where her grandmother came from. At that time the dollar was very strong. She bought Irish pound travelers checks here in the states, I belielieve they cost her $.85/lb I on the other hand used American Express During the plane ride over R. Reagon and the G8 meeting realigned the dollar. During our stay I was watching my dollars buy less and less while my mothers pound checks actually in some stores bought more.

--------------------
Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.


Benjamin Franklin,

Posts: 5835 | From: Just South of the Huron National Forest, in the water shed of the Rifle River | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Callipygous
BlabberMouth, a Blabber Odyssey
Member # 2071

Member Rated:
4
Icon 1 posted November 09, 2007 05:42      Profile for Callipygous     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Bush's disastrous dollar policy - Dan Froomkin (Washington Post)

Good article.

--------------------
"Knowledge is Power. France is Bacon" - Milton

Posts: 2922 | From: Brighton - UK | Registered: Mar 2003  |  IP: Logged
TheMoMan
BlabberMouth, a Blabber Odyssey
Member # 1659

Member Rated:
4
Icon 1 posted November 10, 2007 05:49      Profile for TheMoMan         Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Callipygous _______________________ Maybe Clinton was right when he signed the Nafta (No American Factories Taking Applications) Treaty.

Now maybe all those jobs will come back,

Sheese what was I thinking?

There gone.

--------------------
Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.


Benjamin Franklin,

Posts: 5835 | From: Just South of the Huron National Forest, in the water shed of the Rifle River | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
ASM65816
SuperBlabberMouth!
Member # 712

Member Rated:
2
Icon 4 posted November 10, 2007 13:03      Profile for ASM65816   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
FYI: "Trouble" among global ecomomies is not new.
quote:
Treasury Chief Delivers New Warning to China
September 13, 2006 -- The New York Times Company

Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. said today that Chinese leaders were imperiling their nation's future by following economic policies that Americans and others see as unfair.
...
saying that China has kept the value of its currency artificially low relative to the dollar. A growing number of economic analysts say China's exchange-rate policies are distorting trade in its favor....

Here's how the "scam" works, and you need a few billion to work it right:

Given: The average currency exchange rate is -- (x) from country "A" = (100) from country "B"
  1. Make (or let) county "A" currency "look better" so that (x) currency "A" = (110) currency "B"
  2. Prevent market system from balancing itself normally. (Here's where you need "billions.")
     
    Then knowing that the exchange should be (x) of "A" = (100) of "B" -- at best, maybe it should be (x) = (90) ...
     
  3. Contract to convert (z millions) of currency "A" to currency "B" at the (overpriced) "110 rate."
You "instantaneously" gain 10% on your "investment."

This will not work without tampering with the markets because in the "free market" millions of people take advantage of the 10% improved buying power, and that balances trade and currency valuation gradually. The second result without tampering is that the "millions of people" who are invested in currency "A" do not lose 20% of their monetary value in an instant.
 

quote:
November 08, 2007, 19:25
We've all been on a debt-fueled binge of consumption, and the day of reckoning will come, sooner or later.

Here's what's really "funny":
    (paraphrased from article in another thread) "People from _____ have less intelligence...."

What "lack of intelligence" does it take for people to think they can spend money they don't (and won't) have?   [Confused]

--------------------
Once a proud programmer of Apple II's, he now spends his days and nights in cheap dives fraternizing with exotic dancers....

Posts: 1035 | From: Third rock from sun. | Registered: Mar 2001  |  IP: Logged


All times are Eastern Time  
Post New Topic  New Poll  Post A Reply Close Topic    Move Topic    Delete Topic next oldest topic   next newest topic
 - Printer-friendly view of this topic
Hop To:

Contact Us | Geek Culture Home Page

2015 Geek Culture

Powered by Infopop Corporation
UBB.classicTM 6.4.0


homeGeek CultureWebstoreeCards!Forums!Joy of Tech!AY2K!webcam