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Author Topic: Oil prices go up... yay?
GrumpySteen

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Icon 1 posted June 25, 2008 12:39      Profile for GrumpySteen     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Maybe it's not entirely bad

--------------------
Worst. Celibate. Ever.

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Stereo

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Icon 6 posted June 25, 2008 13:51      Profile for Stereo     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
I've been expecting that. Just as I expect the multi-produce farms to rise back from the ashes the big monocultures sent them to. Just as we can already see a sharp increase of public transit/car-pooling/other transport usage; and there is no need for a crystal ball to foresee a price increase of city dwellings.

As the price to move around increases, people will look for proximity. One could even safely bet on a decrease of obesity: as people try to live closer to their work, shopping places and such, they will find it's easier - maybe even faster - to walk/cycle there rather than take the car out, fight the traffic, find a parking, get the groceries into the car, fight some more and park the car back.

A more far-fetched guess would be the decline of the Wall-Marts and other big-boxes retails in favor of the smaller local retailers. Once getting there will cost more than the savings the big-boxes offers, smart people will think twice. The risk of this bet lays on the proportion of smart people vs. dumb ones who only see the price on the label, and don't factor in the travel price, and the impact of publicity.

Now, closer to the main topic, I kinda worry about what will happen in China. As it has grown on its cheap labour and now has a middle class expecting a minimum level of comfort, their loss of all those jobs may jeopardize this new equilibrium. Of course, it may have enough internal wealth to use the workforce for its own internal use, rather than the rest of the world, but it might not be that easy. I expect trouble to rise up as their commercial balance dives down.

India, on the other hand, has worked very hard at developping educated workers, and data don't need oil to travel around the world. So I think they'll be mostly free from massive layouts problems. Their trouble will - correction: already does - come from the increase of food price.

The next years could be interesting for sociologists...

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Eppur, si muove!

Galileo Galilei

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iNoles
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Icon 1 posted June 25, 2008 16:59      Profile for iNoles     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
it is time for people from the world is buying a fuel-efficient cars.
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Colonel Panic
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Icon 1 posted June 25, 2008 20:24      Profile for Colonel Panic         Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
The worst side-effect I've witnessed so far it that the higher gas prices get, the ruder SUV drivers become.

CP

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Callipygous
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Icon 1 posted June 26, 2008 03:47      Profile for Callipygous     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
The rising oil prices (and commodity prices generally), while they pose serious problems for us, both in their immediate effect and consequences for the world economy, are already having a catastrophic effect in the third world where much of the population is only barely getting by. For them the fact that staples like rice and flour have risen just as dramatically as oil is the difference between subsistence and starvation. To take a couple of examples that I remember from this programme, in Ghana bread has become so expensive that it is now sold by the slice, and one man said that his bus journey to work which used to consume 25% of his pay check, now takes more than 50%.

It makes our concerns seem rather trivial.

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"Knowledge is Power. France is Bacon" - Milton

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Anovadea
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Icon 1 posted June 26, 2008 18:29      Profile for Anovadea     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
(By the way, I just realised I'm rambling heavily in this... so, if it's less than coherent it's because it's a literal braindump, so I'm rambling because I can't quite serialise the ideas in my head)

Interesting article. The nice thing is that, to a large degree America is big enough to weather this sort of thing. I'm not sure about industries in the US, but it's a big landmass with a diverse range of exploitable natural resources available. Ireland, on the other hand, not so much. Of course, it'll encourage us to warm up our farming industries again (they've mainly been sitting around claiming grants from the EU for not producing too much milk/beef/grain/you-name-it-it's-here) so we can actually feed ourselves. Everything else we'll more or less need shipped to us.

It's interesting to think on what effects this has compared with a few decades ago; While hard products like electronics and clothes will be affected, I doubt that big software giants will be retracting from foreign climes - if the network infrastructure is there, and the programmers aren't in the US, they can still produce software. The big problem is that actual hardware is going to be difficult to ship to well... anywhere. I know one major company this is going to hit hard (I'm not saying who, but they have tight enough profit margins as it is, when they hit profit) because almost all of their QA is in Ireland, which means that they have to test their software on their latest hardware, and that sort of stuff has to be used on-site (this is especially true for the performance QA), so it has to be shipped to Ireland. However, that's the extreme case and shouldn't be the case for everyone. Remember that the existing developers will have assets already in their possession; it's just that getting new gear to them will become more expensive.

At any rate, it looks like I'm going to be finding out first hand what effect this all has on Ireland, especially given that our governments put out a lot of incentives to get IT companies roosting over here. If they survive, we might be do ok. What is encouraging is that a good few companies have EMEA (Europe, Middle East, Africa) headquarters in Dublin, so it would require significant investment to relocate (although it doesn't preclude them just shutting up shop altogether on this side of the world) meaning that we've got a little bit of insurance.

Anyway, that's a big software-based digression... this anemone-like shrinking is going to be happening all over. It strikes me that America's going to be on home turf with this, in so far that it can look inwards and find the resources within itself to survive. The way Europe is planning on Federalising is also going to make it easy for them, although the remoteness of Ireland is going to make it difficult for us one way or the other, although we'll get through it (and I don't think that a recession would be the worst thing for the health of what remains of the Irish culture/mindset - we've become very corporate in the last decade or two, I don't think it's a great mindset). Britain is relatively self-sufficient from what I've gathered... although that was before privatisation.

Another interesting feature to watch is how Britain's Sterling is going to fare against the Euro. On the one hand, Britain may have to lean on Europe for trade to get in resources, but on the other hand, Ireland's going to be leaning heavily on them. So Ireland will be heavily buying Sterling to get goods, but Britain will be selling Sterling just as much, if not more (given that the entire population of Ireland is less than London's population, it's reasonable to assume there are a lot more mouths to feed and bodies to clothe), it'll be interesting to see what Ireland's buying power in Britain will be like compared to previous times of recession.

As a total aside, and a little cherry, I bet the US is mighty happy that the oil nations are still trading on the dollar rather than the euro!

Aoife

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Stereo

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Icon 1 posted June 26, 2008 19:32      Profile for Stereo     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
I wouldn't worry too much about Ireland. After all, the whole of European Union has (I believe) less territory than Canada alone. Remember: it takes less time to travel from Paris to Montreal than from Montreal to Vancouver. So the price of shipping to and from Ireland will be significantly less than the price of shipping, say grains from Alberta to Newfoundland (and Labrador, to be correct), or cars from Ontario to British Columbia, or... You get the idea.

Sure, there will be some adjustments to make for the new price of shipping, but if Ireland continues to hold an aggressive business plan as it has in the last decade or so, it should come out among the winners.

No, the big losers will be those who developed an economy based on cheap labour and exportations.

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Eppur, si muove!

Galileo Galilei

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YaYawoman

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Icon 1 posted June 27, 2008 07:07      Profile for YaYawoman     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Bit of a braindump here as well.

There are two theories that have been rattling around my head for a time now. They are opposing ideas. They have been bandied about for a while now as the talking heads discuss the oil situation. I think they may both be very valid and cancel each other out. If that happens than many so-called experts views and assumptions regarding how things work will have to be adjusted.

First is demand destruction. Many who are paid to yap on bubblevision spout this as a reason why oil is in a bubble built on speculation and that there will be a massive correction to the downside if not soon then someday. Their premise is that as the price per barrel rises, as the price of gas rises consumers will stop buying, stop using as much, will cut down thereby knocking the price down since it would lead to more oil on market than being bought.

The second is peak oil. Easily accesible light sweet crude has plateued and is in an unstoppable decline, eventually to zero. That does not mean all oil is depleted, just the easily drilled, easily refined oil. That in theory leads to highter and higher prices as supply contracts. Those in peak oil camp say buckle up, this oil drama is just starting.

My rattling brain wonders if they cancel each other out for a number of years. as demand contracts but at the same time supply contracts, would that not lead to higher prices?

Throw in globalization and china india and others doing their damndest to schlep into 20th century middle class nirvana even if demand falls in the west will demand pressures in emerging markets and economies still pressure the price of oil?

like i said, rambling braindump but questions worth thinking about possibly.

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TheMoMan
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Icon 1 posted June 27, 2008 10:33      Profile for TheMoMan         Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
_____________________ Hi All ______________ Just some ramblings from TheMoMan. Oil refineries need to run, the last thing they want is to run out of stock. Man serious damage when the tank hits empty. now to guarantee stocks they are buying into the future, like the movie Back To The Future. Now if demand drops they throttle back but do not shut down. They still are committed to the contract for expensive oil so price at the pump will not drop until future prices drop.

____ I was thinking of planting Rape "Canola" as I went to the grain elevator and started getting prices, it became obvious that I could sell the crop before I even bought the seed. How stupid is that, the man at the counter had never seen me before and was basically offering me the seed and loan of the planters to use to get it into the ground, if I would sell before I committed. Things are sure different than when my Uncle ran GrandMa's farm.

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Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.


Benjamin Franklin,

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YaYawoman

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Icon 1 posted June 27, 2008 10:42      Profile for YaYawoman     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Ag question moman. So what would happen if you sold the future contract on your crop but due to mother nature having a fit your crop was destroyed before harvest?

Would the failure to deliver be an expense the farmer bore, or would the speculator buying the crop before it was even planted bite the loss?

thanks

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Colonel Panic
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Icon 1 posted June 27, 2008 11:51      Profile for Colonel Panic         Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by YaYawoman:
Ag question moman. So what would happen if you sold the future contract on your crop but due to mother nature having a fit your crop was destroyed before harvest?

Would the failure to deliver be an expense the farmer bore, or would the speculator buying the crop before it was even planted bite the loss?

thanks

Traditionally, failure to deliver would be an expense the farmer bore.

This would require the farmer to purchase a crop at market price and sell it to the option holder. If the crop failure were widespread and prices were therefore very high, this would be a significant loss for the farmer.

CP

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YaYawoman

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Icon 1 posted June 27, 2008 12:50      Profile for YaYawoman     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Thanks CP.

that leads me to one more question and i do not know where to find the answer. How many farmers sold their crops before harvest that are now literally underwater?

Crop insurance will help?

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TheMoMan
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Icon 1 posted June 27, 2008 18:09      Profile for TheMoMan         Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
___________________ Hi All __ I am unsure if this is going to be or is already an urban legend. I heard about it this morning on the two meter ham repeater from West Branch Mi.

_____ It seems some people observed a service truck with a goose neck trailer at a filling station with a logo about Monitoring Well Servicing, they had flood lights set up and worked most of the night.

_____ Following morning the owner and his crew arrive at the station and discover that Five Thousand Gallons of gasoline (Petrol) are missing.
__________________________________________________

I did check Snopes and did not find any thing about this.
__________________________________________________

____ About the crop seed loan, I am pretty sure that I or an insurance company would have to cover the loss. I did not like the idea and am testing a small plot, then taking that crop for next years planting. I do not like borrowing money, I would rather lose it because of my own misadventure. Sun flower and pumpkins seem easy to grow and have a huge seed return for each one planted. Who knows maybe The Great Pumpkin will show up.

____ Flood insurance, can someone living in or on a flood plain even get flood insurance. Now if the crop was rice, but due to the pollutants the crop probably would be held off the market.

--------------------
Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.


Benjamin Franklin,

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The Famous Druid

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Icon 1 posted June 27, 2008 18:57      Profile for The Famous Druid     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by TheMoMan:
It seems some people observed a service truck with a goose neck trailer at a filling station with a logo about Monitoring Well Servicing, they had flood lights set up and worked most of the night.

_____ Following morning the owner and his crew arrive at the station and discover that Five Thousand Gallons of gasoline (Petrol) are missing.

Can't comment on the above story, but we had similar thefts of water here last summer.

We're suffering a decade-long drought (aka 'climate change') and swimming-pool owners are not allowed to fill their pools from the public supply, they must buy (at great cost) truckloads of water from elsewhere. People with large rainwater tanks who turned their backs for a few hours returned to find them emptied, presumably by unscrupulous water-tanker drivers.


On the subject of fuel thefts...


Here in oz there's been a spate of car number-plate thefts.

People steal a set of plates, put them on their own car, fill up at a service station, and drive off without paying

With the cost of filling a typical family car now well over $100, it's not surprising.

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If you watch 'The History Of NASA' backwards, it's about a space agency that has no manned spaceflight capability, then does low-orbit flights, then lands on the Moon.

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TheMoMan
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Icon 1 posted June 28, 2008 05:49      Profile for TheMoMan         Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
________________________ Hi ____ A little side story. A friend of mine and a very good wrench (mechanic). Has a cigarette Boat, and he also likes to fish that you catch by trolling, wrong boat. Well he took out the three 7.5 Liter engines and replaced them with nine 2.5 engines. Complex yes, usable you bet. Run on the center rear and the boat trolls well, want to go fast just keep starting the rest, best of both worlds. He did this long before fuel prices went through the roof.

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Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.


Benjamin Franklin,

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ASM65816
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Icon 4 posted June 28, 2008 14:34      Profile for ASM65816   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
quote:
June 26, 2008 03:47
The rising oil prices (and commodity prices generally) ... are already having a catastrophic effect in the third world where much of the population is only barely getting by....

...staples like rice and flour have risen just as dramatically as oil....

Just a reminder, 4000 years ago, nobody used "petrol" and everybody was a "third world country" (in terms of technological production, etc).

FYI: For a given area, when the total food produced by the total land is less than the total food required by the inhabitants -- it's "Over-Population."

Essentially all food was produced and consumed locally, because the cost of transport was outrageous.

[ohwell]   Now in theory, anybody could produce (at least some) food locally. In theory, a place like "new york" could use "civic agriculture," and theoretically lower food expenses through self-sufficiency. (If you wanted to make it sound cool, use the word "Green" to say how "tables" get "food" with environmentally and socially conscious projects ... but I digress.)

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Once a proud programmer of Apple II's, he now spends his days and nights in cheap dives fraternizing with exotic dancers....

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Xanthine

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Icon 1 posted June 28, 2008 14:51      Profile for Xanthine     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
That was then, this is now, and when people in South and Southeast Asia can't afford the rice they grow locally, I'd call that a problem.

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And it's one, two, three / On the wrong side of the lee / What were you meant for? / What were you meant for?
- The Decemberists

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ASM65816
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Icon 5 posted June 28, 2008 17:07      Profile for ASM65816   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
quote:
June 28, 2008 14:51
That was then, this is now, and when people in South and Southeast Asia can't afford the rice they grow locally, I'd call that a problem.

Economic theory says that for a product with a high sale price (compared to its cost to produce):
  1. More producers will seek to provide the product, thus increasing supply.
  2. As the supply of a product increases (given a fixed demand curve), the market price of the product will fall (to equilibrium).
  3. As price falls, the product becomes "affordable."
 
I know food can be produced without "petrol" in the third world, so it would seem that "something peculiar" (not oil related) is going on. For example, wouldn't individuals enter the "black market" to sell fruits and such for "easy money"?
(Just quoting theory.)

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Once a proud programmer of Apple II's, he now spends his days and nights in cheap dives fraternizing with exotic dancers....

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The Famous Druid

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Icon 1 posted June 28, 2008 17:44      Profile for The Famous Druid     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
الضحك حتى بلدي الماعز تنفجر لدراسة الاقتصاد في جامعة والفوز بجاءزه نوبل للعلوم النجوم

ASM القديمة الفقيره.
حتى جدا جدا الخلط.
حتى جدا جدا مضحك.

ومن الواضح انه لا يفهم ما يكفي ان نعرف ان الاقتصاد زيادة في الاسعار ومن المتوقع ان تسبب انخفاض في الطلب.
كيف تدخل في الطلب على الغذاء؟
انه يدعى الموت جوعا.

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If you watch 'The History Of NASA' backwards, it's about a space agency that has no manned spaceflight capability, then does low-orbit flights, then lands on the Moon.

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Colonel Panic
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Icon 1 posted June 28, 2008 21:31      Profile for Colonel Panic         Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
After the Russians terrorized all of America with the launch of Sputnik, we got John F. Kennedy and put a man on the moon.

After 9-11 and today's oil crisis, we have George W. Bush and ASM.

And that people is real terrorism.

CP

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ASM65816
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Icon 2 posted June 29, 2008 00:59      Profile for ASM65816   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Colonel Panic:
After 9-11 and today's oil crisis, we have ... ASM.       And that people is real terrorism.

Wow ...... you're so naive. I violate the laws of time and space. Why not say "after the universe came into existence, we have ASM"?

Speaking of people starving:
  • Josef Stalin (leader of a totalitarian state) - over 7 million died of starvation, and he was blamed, go figure....
     
  • China (Communist / totalitarian state) - at least an estimated 14 million died under "The Great Leap Forward" (their projects of economic transformation), many dying from widespread famine.
     
  • Saddam Hussein (leader of a totalitarian state) - although he had 78 palaces worth an estimated $2 billion, by "coincidence" Iraqis were starving and suffering for lack of health care (at roughly the same time).
 
Hey CP, don't you want to tell everybody about my "hand" in these deaths also? You've actually made me curious: How well have you estimated the "true extent" of my power?
 
EDIT: Look! It's a picture of Me!
 
 -
 
(I'm the one on the left.)

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Once a proud programmer of Apple II's, he now spends his days and nights in cheap dives fraternizing with exotic dancers....

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The Famous Druid

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Icon 1 posted June 29, 2008 01:55      Profile for The Famous Druid     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
<الضحك حتى على بلدي الماعز مرحلة الموسيقيه لتمويل

شراء انتحاري يمنح للمحرومين من المجاهدين والجهاديين الرطانه تحمل لشراء الخاصة بها
<

برافو ASM ، مرة اخرى تثبت انك الخاص بك مجموعة عدم القدرة على التمييز بين معنى بسيط الارسال.
[Applause] [crazy] [Applause] [crazy] [Applause]


الحجه رسم


لصب (في ترتيب الذي وردت به.)
م = رجل يبحث عن حجة
ص = استقبال
س = المسيء
أ = المجادل (جون Cleese)
ج = المتذمر (اريك الراكد)
ح = رئيس الضارب


م : آه. ويهمني ان اشير الى ان يكون حجة ، من فضلك.
ص : بالتأكيد يا سيدي. كنت هنا من قبل؟
م : لا ، انا لا ، هذه هي المرة الأولى.
ص : أرى. حسنا ، هل تريد ان يكون حجة واحدة فقط ، أو كنت افكر في أخذ دوره؟
م : حسنا ، ما هو الثمن؟
ص : حسنا انه جنيه واحد لمدة خمس دقائق من الجدل ، ولكن فقط لثمانيه جنيه خلال العشره.
م : حسنا ، اعتقد انه سيكون من الافضل لو كنت ربما بدأت مع واحد فقط وبعد ذلك نرى كيف يمضي.
ص : الغرامه. حسنا ، أنا سوف ترى من الحرة في الوقت الراهن.
المهله
ص : السيد debakey الحرة ، ولكنه قليلا للتوفيق.
Ahh نعم ، حاول السيد برنار ؛ 12 غرفة.
م : شكرا لك.

(مناحي اسفل القاعه. تفتح الباب.)

س : ماذا تريد؟
م : حسنا ، قيل لي ان خارج...
س : لا تعطى لي ذلك ، أنت مختال الوجه كومة من ذرق الببغاء!
م : ماذا؟
س : اغلق الملتهبه gob الخاص بك ، انت الحلمه! نوع الخاصة بك حقا يجعلني puke ، كنت بلا معنى ، والبن ، الانف ، maloderous ، المنحرف!
م : انظر ، انا جاء هنا لحجة ، وإنا لن تقف فقط...!!
س : اوه ، اوه انا آسف ، لكن هذا الاعتداء.
م : اوه ، لا أرى ، ايضا ، ان يفسر له.
س : آه نعم ، كنت ترغب في الغرفة 12a ، عادل على طول الممر.
م : اوه ، شكرا جزيلا. آسف.
س : لا على الاطلاق.
م : شكرا لك.
(في اطار انفاسه) Git غبي!

(السير في الممر)
م : (طرق)
أ : تعال
م : آه ، هذا هو الحق مجالا للحجة؟
ج : قلت لك مرة واحدة.
م : لا لم تقم.
ج : نعم لقد.
م : متى؟
أ : للتو.
م : لا انت لم تفعل ذلك.
ج : نعم فعلت.
م : لم تقم
ج : أنا!
م : أنت لم!
ج : أنا أخبرك فعلت!
م : أنت لم!
أ : أوه ، انا آسف ، لحظة واحدة فقط. هل هذه حجة تزيد مدته عن خمس دقائق او نصف ساعة كاملة؟
م : اوه ، فقط خمس دقائق.
أ : آه ، شكرا لكم. على أي حال ، لقد فعلت.
م : انت بكل تأكيد لا.
أ : نظرة ، هيا بنا هذا الامر واضحا لي تماما قال لك بالتأكيد.
م : لا انت لم تفعل ذلك.
ج : نعم فعلت.
م : لا انت لم تفعل ذلك.
ج : نعم فعلت.
م : لا انت لم تفعل ذلك.
ج : نعم فعلت.
م : لا انت لم تفعل ذلك.
ج : نعم فعلت.
م : انت لم تفعل ذلك.
ج : لا.
م : يا نظره ، وهذه ليست حجة.
ج : نعم هو.
م : لم يسجل أي أنها ليست كذلك. لكنه ما لبث ان التناقض.
ج : لا انها ليست كذلك.
م : يكون!
أ : انها ليست كذلك.

--------------------
If you watch 'The History Of NASA' backwards, it's about a space agency that has no manned spaceflight capability, then does low-orbit flights, then lands on the Moon.

Posts: 10668 | From: Melbourne, Australia | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
YaYawoman

Solid Nitrozanium SuperFan!
Member # 4505

Member Rated:
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Icon 1 posted June 29, 2008 08:56      Profile for YaYawoman     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by ASM65816:
quote:
June 28, 2008 14:51
That was then, this is now, and when people in South and Southeast Asia can't afford the rice they grow locally, I'd call that a problem.

Economic theory says that for a product with a high sale price (compared to its cost to produce):
  1. More producers will seek to provide the product, thus increasing supply.
  2. As the supply of a product increases (given a fixed demand curve), the market price of the product will fall (to equilibrium).
  3. As price falls, the product becomes "affordable."
 
I know food can be produced without "petrol" in the third world, so it would seem that "something peculiar" (not oil related) is going on. For example, wouldn't individuals enter the "black market" to sell fruits and such for "easy money"?
(Just quoting theory.)

well asm that is the theory, and generally it does hold up. with this situation i amowndering if peak oil is correct and the supply of easily pumped easily refined light sweet crude is dwindling than there will not be a supply-pushed price decrease.

i think there is specualtion in the market, from mo-mo's riding a trend to oil-dependent industries like airlines attempting to secure future product to banks trying very very hard to recapitalize from the global credit bubble/bust. I am starting to believe however that with the possibility of peak oil a real phenomena that even with speculation reined in the cheap oil and gas days are over. so, price per barrel comes down from the 140-150 range to a plateau of 100-110. Big whoop.

As regard ag, it is very dependent on oil derived products, fertilizer, pesticides, transport, tractors. This ag revolution made it possible to keep very marginal land in production world wide which helped to mitigate the paul ehrlich / Malthus population bomb. remoe that support and wham.

Water also will become more and more of an issue. rice is a pig for water. How much productive land world wide is dependent on irrigation? i do not know but here in the states if irrigation was halted many regions especially the california ag sectorw ould be wiped out.

And as for black market, many nations and populations everywhere grasp it and work it hard, but if product aint there, it aint there.

Damn im rambling. I forgot my rule, no posting until first cup of coffee is consumed.

Posts: 765 | From: virginia | Registered: Oct 2005  |  IP: Logged
ASM65816
SuperBlabberMouth!
Member # 712

Member Rated:
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Icon 1 posted June 29, 2008 12:56      Profile for ASM65816   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
quote:
June 29, 2008 08:56
... but if product aint there, it aint there.

Very true.
 
quote:
As regard ag, it is very dependent on oil derived products....
Very true for the industrialized world; however, "dependent" is the more important concept (IMO), and it applies to every economy, regardless of size. For any product: size of labor force, quality of skill in the labor force, supply of tools and manufacturing, and supply of materials needed to make the product are dependencies.
 
quote:
with the possibility of peak oil a real phenomena ... the cheap oil and gas days are over. so, price per barrel comes down from the 140-150 range to a plateau of 100-110. Big whoop.
Actually, oil falling from $150 a barrel to $100 a barrel would remove a lot of economic "stress."

I wouldn't call it "Peak Oil", instead (IMNSHO) current economic problems are the result of a near-unchanging price on a product/material with an ever increasing importance: In 1977 oil was $15 per barrel, in 1988 still about $15 per barrel, in 1998 about $13 per barrel, and in 1999 about $17 per barrel.

Some people like to use the term "correction" for rapid, harsh changes in a market. Oddly enough, the bigger something is, the worse its reaction to rapid, harsh change. As an extreme example, take an ice cube, spin it 90 degrees, and then move 5 feet in some horizontal direction -- now imagine the result of doing the same thing to a glacier -- the glacier would probably shatter with "extreme" chaos.

If the price of oil had risen to $100 per barrel over the course of 30 years, almost every car in major cities would probably be fully electric, while vehicles that put most of their miles on fast highways would be hybrid -- and this would be "completely" the result of market forces.

Of course, the 30 years scenario is only theoretical, and "cheap oil" has been named as having continuously added 1.4% to economic growth (each and every year).

--------------------
Once a proud programmer of Apple II's, he now spends his days and nights in cheap dives fraternizing with exotic dancers....

Posts: 1035 | From: Third rock from sun. | Registered: Mar 2001  |  IP: Logged
The Famous Druid

Gold Hearted SuperFan!
Member # 1769

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Icon 1 posted June 29, 2008 13:01      Profile for The Famous Druid     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by YaYawoman:
well asm that is the theory, and generally it does hold up.

Actually, in this case it wouldn't.

As I pointed out above (in Arabic for my fellow jihadists at GC - so I'll forgive you for not reading it, but it might be a good idea to learn Arabic, for when our evil plot succeeds. Until then - Google Language Tools is your friend) basic supply-and-demand theory would also predict a decrease in demand.

Think about how a decrease in demand for food might be achieved in poor countries, there's a technical term for it, starts with 'S', ends in 'tarvation'.

As for ASM's suggestion that the world fed itself very nicely without the use of oil 4000 years ago (when the world population was around 30 million) and that New York could become self-sufficient in food if everyone planted a few carrots in their window-boxes, well, that's jaw-droppingly stupid, even for ASM.

--------------------
If you watch 'The History Of NASA' backwards, it's about a space agency that has no manned spaceflight capability, then does low-orbit flights, then lands on the Moon.

Posts: 10668 | From: Melbourne, Australia | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged


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